Oscar predictions 2011

Colin Firth and The King's Speech should have a good Oscar night. © Photo from AP/The Weinstein Company.

Colin Firth and The King's Speech should have a good Oscar night. © AP/The Weinstein Company photo.

The 10-film best picture Oscar field has become such a tease.

In just two years, it has created the illusion of a lot more — and a lot more popular — films vying for the top honor. But in the end, it still boils down two or three movies jockeying for the finish line.

It would be wonderful to see an inventive and challenging Chris Nolan film like Inception or Darren Aronofsky’s Black Swan get the prize when it is handed out Sunday night. But we know that’s not going to happen.

It would also be wonderful if the voters got over their anti-animation snobbery and gave some of the outstanding studios like Pixar, nominated this year for Toy Story 3, a real shot. But we know that’s not going to happen.

And speaking of snobbery, could any of these award shows give an honest-to-God, unpretentious comedy a shot? I won’t say it.

Old Oscar habits die hard, and it will probably happen again this year.

If ever there was a movie tailor-made for Oscar, The King’s Speech is it.

British, or European? (See: Shakespeare in Love, The English Patient.) Check.

Focused on a person contending with a disability? (See: A Beautiful Mind, Forest Gump.) Check.

Have the heft of Harvey Weinstein, Mr. Oscar promoter? (See: Chicago, No Country for Old Men and several movies already mentioned.) Check.

Did we mention strong acting performances often propel best picture winners? (See: Firth, Colin; Rush, Geoffrey; Bonham-Carter, Helena.) Check.

Justin Timberlake and Jesse Eisenberg in The Social Network. © Sony Pictures/AP photo.

Justin Timberlake and Jesse Eisenberg in The Social Network. © Sony Pictures/AP photo.

Back around Golden Globes time, it looked like The Social Network, the cheeky movie about the founding of Facebook, was the frontrunner for best picture. But then almost all the Hollywood trade guilds — which are much more reflective of Oscar voters that the Hollywood Foreign Press Association — went with The King’s Speech, and the tide started shifting. Unfortunately.

Nothing against The King’s Speech, but The Social Network is so good, so relevant and so unexpected. Remember the buzz before The Social Network came out? How are they going to make a movie about Facebook interesting? Who wants to watch a movie about the entity that made “friend” a verb?

And then we saw this brilliant piece of film work that cast a Harvard computer geek as this sort of tragic king, cutting his onetime loyalists off at the knees and slowly isolating himself as his power grows. And that isolation — particularly the final scene — was an unsettling commentary on the simultaneous connectedness and detachment of online social media.

The Social Network still has a good shot at winning, and it would be great to see it happen for the movie’s relevance and outstanding take on an excruciatingly current topic. Last year’s win for The Hurt Locker makes me think the Academy might be in that sort of mood, but the The King’s Speech is the sort of Oscar bait voters probably won’t be able to resist.

David Fincher accepts the award for Best Director in a Motion Picture for The Social Network during the Golden Globe Awards. © AP/NBC photo by Paul Drinkwater.

David Fincher accepts the award for Best Director in a Motion Picture for The Social Network during the Golden Globe Awards. © AP/NBC photo by Paul Drinkwater.

Best director

Here’s The Social Network’s best shot at one of the big six awards. In another director’s hands, the film might have lacked the punch David Fincher brought to Aaron Sorkin’s script. But The King’s Speech’s Tom Hooper won the Director’s Guild Award, which is usually a good indicator of the winner. So it’s another close race, but considering it is not just directors who vote for the best-picture Oscar, a best picture-best director split seems plausible this year, with Fincher taking home the prize.

Best actor and best actress

Natalie Portman accepts the award for best female actor in a leading role for "Black Swan" at the 17th Annual Screen Actors Guild Awards on Sunday, Jan. 30, 2011 in Los Angeles. (AP Photo/Mark J. Terrill)

Natalie Portman accepts the award for best female actor in a leading role for Black Swan at the Screen Actors Guild Awards on Jan. 30. © AP Photo by Mark J. Terrill.

Colin Firth’s humanizing performance in The King’s Speech and Natalie Portman’s psychotic break in Black Swan look to be mortal locks for the top acting prizes, though we would certainly take some Kentucky pride in Louisville’s Jennifer Lawrence of Winter’s Bone staging an upset.

It won’t happen, but Lawrence is a big winner this year anyway making a name for herself in the gritty drama. She’ll be back.

The story developing here is an always-a-bridesmaid saw about Annette Bening, nominated this year for The Kids Are All Right. Soon, if she just utters sentences coherently in an off-year for actresses, she will get her Oscar. At least, for Bening’s sake, Hilary Swank, who has beat her twice, isn’t a contender this year.

Best supporting actor and actress

Christian Bale is the lock here for The Fighter, and you would have thought his co-star Melissa Leo, who has won most of the pre-Oscar awards, would also be a solid bet. Bet there is this huge buzz for 14-year-old True Grit star Hailee Steinfeld to steal the Oscar. Supporting actress is the category with a record of upsets (most recently, Tilda Swinton’s 2007 win for Michael Clayton) and awarding children (most recently, Anna Paquin for The Piano). The coin toss (seriously), says Leo holds on and adds to her trophy cabinet, and Hailee has to wait.

Louisville's Jennifer Lawrence, shown arriving at the Screen Actors Guild Awards, has been a hit on the red carpet this awards season. © AP Photo by Chris Pizzello.

Louisville's Jennifer Lawrence, shown arriving at the Screen Actors Guild Awards, has been a hit on the red carpet this awards season. © AP Photo by Chris Pizzello.

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