Copious Notes

Sean Penn backstage after winning the Oscar for best actor for his performance in Milk. Copyrighted AP Photo by Matt Sayles.

As Oscars surprises go, Sean Penn besting Mickey Rourke in the best actor race was not Juliet Binoche jumping ahead of Lauren Bacall in 1996 or Shakespeare in Love stunning Saving Private Ryan in 1998.

Mickey Rourke on the red carpet. Copyrighted AP Photo by Amy Sancetta.

But the conventional wisdom was that Penn, nominated for Milk, was a fairly recent winner (2004 for Mystic River), and Mickey was the hot new comeback tale with The Wrestler. Rourke had already won a number of pre-Oscar acting prizes, including the Golden Globe. So, a lot of observers, including me, installed Mick as the favorite to win for a moving, harrowing  performance that included being stapled by a real-life wrestler called the Necro Butcher.

But when the envelope was opened, Penn’s name was called, and he stepped to the stage to thank, “You commie, homo-loving sons of guns.” Some saw it as reflexive. On Morning Joe, conservative commentator Joe Scarborough called awarding Penn for playing the trailblazing gay rights activist Harvey Milk, “Pavlovian,” saying he predicted it the moment he saw Penn was playing Milk. That’s a vast oversimplification, invoking a Pavlovian reflex by many conservatives to paint Hollywood as obsessed with boosting liberal politics.

Penn’s victory could have been predicted for a variety of reasons, and was by some media outlets including Enterainment Weekly, which I expect will probably offer up a report on how Penn won. In its annual article where it has some voters anonymously reveal their picks, two-out-of-three commentators chose Penn, and in reporting from a variety of sources, you could sense an undercurrent of support for the film and the performance. Late in the weekend, I was wondering if Louisville’s Gus Van Sant, who directed Milk, would have been a better upset pick for director than The Curious Case of Benjamin Button’s David Fincher, who I incorrectly guessed.

But it turned out it was Penn with the Milk upset, and really it could have been predicted by ruling in one piece of conventional wisdom and ruling out another. It would have been good to remember that actors who play real people tend to do well at the Oscars. With Penn’s win, four out of the last five best actor winners have played historical figures. And the idea he’d won too recently was overplayed. Kevin Spacey won best supporting actor for The Usual Suspects in 1995 and best actor for American Beauty in 1999. Jodie Foster’s best actress honors were 1988 for The Accused and 1991 for Silence of the Lambs, Meryl Streep’s Oscars came in in 1979 and 1982, and, of course, there were Tom Hanks’ back-to-back best actor nods in 1993 and ‘94. Clearly, Oscar does not have a problem awarding two trophies to actors who turn in strong performances in close succession.

And yes, some of the strong feeling for Milk is fueled by past and present social issues that both Penn and Dustin Lance Black, who won best original screenplay for Milk, addressed those from the stage, last night. But Penn did not win for a reflexive left-wing bias and he didn’t steal an honor from Rourke. He earned the prize for being one of the best actors of our day, and the victory was more predictable than we might have thought.

Dev Patel, left, and Anil Kapoor in Slumdog Millionaire. Copyrighted AP/Fox Searchlight photo by Ishika Mohan.

Who wouldn’t like a feel-good story right about now: a tale of redemption, an artist getting her due, last respects for a fallen star. Oscar might give us those warm fuzzies Sunday night when the envelopes start opening. Here are my predictions:

Best actor

Mickey Rourke, The Wrestler

His Golden Globe win was a sign that people really liked this fearless performance and liked Rourke. Sean Penn’s Harvey Milk in Milk and Frank Langella’s President Richard Nixon in Frost/Nixon have their adherents. But Mick has been the comeback story of the year in film, and isn’t it about time for a good comeback story?

Best actress

Kate Winslet, The Reader

Who’s more due: Winslet, nominated five times with no win, or Meryl Streep, ­nominated 10 times without a win since 1983 (for Sophie’s Choice)? Bet on ­Winslet, who could have been nominated for The Reader or Revolutionary Road. She’s truly the best actress of 2008.

Supporting actor

Heath Ledger, The Dark Knight

We would love to tell you that Lexington ­native Michael Shannon will win Sunday night, but would you even want to beat the late Ledger, with all the emotion behind this nomination? Ledger will win a well-earned ­posthumous award for a film that should get more recognition. Shannon will be back.

Supporting actress

Penélope Cruz, Vicky Cristina Barcelona

This is the biggest coin toss of the major categories, and there is some fun in the idea of “two-time Oscar winner Marisa Tomei.” But immensely talented and drop-dead gorgeous have always worked in this category, and it should work for Cruz, who also is due for her brilliant career.

Best director

David Fincher, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button

Slumdog Millionaire’s Danny Boyle might very well saw off the limb I’m out on here, but 13 nominations connotes some respect for Ben Button, and a lot of that achievement is in the cat-herding task of directing this thing. It’s also hard to imagine a flick going 0-13, which some bet Ben will do.

Best picture

Slumdog Millionaire

Right after the nominations came out, there was some drama: Would accusations that Slumdog exploits Indians derail it? Would Harvey Weinstein bully The Reader to a win? But Slumdog has continued to roll - nearing $100 million at the box office - and Weinstein has lost his ability to surprise people.

~ Watch Sunday here and in the Herald-Leader for our profile of Michael Shannon.

~ I’ll be Twittering the Academy Awards Sunday night, using the hashtag #oscars. Come and  get in on the conversation, and stay with LexGo.com for continuing coverage from L.A.