Copious Notes

Sean Penn backstage after winning the Oscar for best actor for his performance in Milk. Copyrighted AP Photo by Matt Sayles.

As Oscars surprises go, Sean Penn besting Mickey Rourke in the best actor race was not Juliet Binoche jumping ahead of Lauren Bacall in 1996 or Shakespeare in Love stunning Saving Private Ryan in 1998.

Mickey Rourke on the red carpet. Copyrighted AP Photo by Amy Sancetta.

But the conventional wisdom was that Penn, nominated for Milk, was a fairly recent winner (2004 for Mystic River), and Mickey was the hot new comeback tale with The Wrestler. Rourke had already won a number of pre-Oscar acting prizes, including the Golden Globe. So, a lot of observers, including me, installed Mick as the favorite to win for a moving, harrowing  performance that included being stapled by a real-life wrestler called the Necro Butcher.

But when the envelope was opened, Penn’s name was called, and he stepped to the stage to thank, “You commie, homo-loving sons of guns.” Some saw it as reflexive. On Morning Joe, conservative commentator Joe Scarborough called awarding Penn for playing the trailblazing gay rights activist Harvey Milk, “Pavlovian,” saying he predicted it the moment he saw Penn was playing Milk. That’s a vast oversimplification, invoking a Pavlovian reflex by many conservatives to paint Hollywood as obsessed with boosting liberal politics.

Penn’s victory could have been predicted for a variety of reasons, and was by some media outlets including Enterainment Weekly, which I expect will probably offer up a report on how Penn won. In its annual article where it has some voters anonymously reveal their picks, two-out-of-three commentators chose Penn, and in reporting from a variety of sources, you could sense an undercurrent of support for the film and the performance. Late in the weekend, I was wondering if Louisville’s Gus Van Sant, who directed Milk, would have been a better upset pick for director than The Curious Case of Benjamin Button’s David Fincher, who I incorrectly guessed.

But it turned out it was Penn with the Milk upset, and really it could have been predicted by ruling in one piece of conventional wisdom and ruling out another. It would have been good to remember that actors who play real people tend to do well at the Oscars. With Penn’s win, four out of the last five best actor winners have played historical figures. And the idea he’d won too recently was overplayed. Kevin Spacey won best supporting actor for The Usual Suspects in 1995 and best actor for American Beauty in 1999. Jodie Foster’s best actress honors were 1988 for The Accused and 1991 for Silence of the Lambs, Meryl Streep’s Oscars came in in 1979 and 1982, and, of course, there were Tom Hanks’ back-to-back best actor nods in 1993 and ‘94. Clearly, Oscar does not have a problem awarding two trophies to actors who turn in strong performances in close succession.

And yes, some of the strong feeling for Milk is fueled by past and present social issues that both Penn and Dustin Lance Black, who won best original screenplay for Milk, addressed those from the stage, last night. But Penn did not win for a reflexive left-wing bias and he didn’t steal an honor from Rourke. He earned the prize for being one of the best actors of our day, and the victory was more predictable than we might have thought.

Best actress winner Kate Winslet, second from left, is congratulated by some of her predecessors in the honor, including Sophia Loren (left), Nicole Kidman (top right), Shirley MacLaine, Halle Berry (right), and Marion Cotillard (foreground). AP Photo | Mark J. Terrill.

They told us they got it.

Nothing speaks louder in television than ratings, and after years of putting on the longest, most bloated awards show out of the majors, dismal ratings (by Oscars standards) in 2008 told the Academy Awards producers they needed to shake things up. They could no longer say it was the Oscars, and people would watch no matter what they did, which is the spirit of actual quotes I’ve seen from Academy directors in the past.

So, we were told this would be a radically different, surprising Academy Awards ceremony.

It did have its moments.

Probably the best were the acting award presentations, featuring five former winners congratulating this year’s nominees. It gave every nominee something to walk away with.

Michael Shannon walks the red carpet with his girlfriend, Kate Arrington. AP Photo/Amy Sancetta.

Just take our Lexington guy, Michael Shannon. We all knew he would not be winning, up against the performance and the emotional backstory of the late Heath Ledger. But he got this heartfelt public tribute from Christopher Walken: “You were right on target. Well done.” Mickey Rourke suffered a mildly surprising defeat, but had Ben Kingsley declare him, “The returning champ.” And each winner walked into the congratulatory embrace of their predecessors. The appreciation of those moments and arrays of best actors and actresses they gave us were really great.

Also great was host Hugh Jackman’s opening number, a recession-era tribute to the best picture nominees. It even included a Dark Knight moment, acknowledging many people felt the Batman movie should have been nominated for best picture and other awards, and the mind-blowing idea of Anne Hathaway playing Richard Nixon.

The producers couched the show in an storyline of talking about how a film is made, starting with screenplay awards and moving into technical honors. Some of the categories were grouped, like all the visual art awards, and that had to help things go faster and brought the show to a close before midnight. But it was a contrived idea that forced the show to awkwardly work in the awards for films that weren’t scripted, live action features and sort of ignored that before all those technical awards, you have to have a director and stars.

The show also tried some things that didn’t work, including a production number — how 1970s! — celebrating the supposed return of the musical, and a film from Judd Apatow and Seth Rogen that was supposed to honor the comedies, but didn’t do much of anything.

This was by no means a bad show. It had some lovely moments, including the beautiful and dignified best supporting actor acceptance speech by Heath Ledger’s family and Queen Latifah’s bittersweet rendition of I’ll Be Seeing You for the film clips of people who passed away last year.

The Academy Awards producers are on the right track trying to refine this thing, and it still is a huge night. But this year’s edition didn’t offer anything to attract people who wouldn’t be tuning in anyway. And in truth, there really is little the producers can do to attract people that aren’t interested in the contenders. It’s not like the Grammy Awards, where you can turn the ceremony into a big concert, and so what if you’re giving all the awards to an album most of America hasn’t heard.

Oscar can’t do that. It needs blockbuster contenders for blockbuster Oscars audiences, and right now, Oscar-worthy and box-office-champ seem to be mutually exclusive terms.

• One thing this year’s Oscars did have over last year’s ratings bomb was a sense of joy. Last year, you could honor the artistry of No Country for Old Men, but it was like cheering on a funeral, the film was so dark and violent, and the Coen brothers seemed to barely register any pleasure in their victory. Slumdog Millionaire, on the other hand, was this uplifting film that brought along an exuberant cast and crew, including a bunch of cute kids.
• Several post-mortems raise the provocative question, should Oscar dump behind-the-scenes and other “minor” categories from the broadcast? I’ve always liked that Oscar gives people like sound designers and short-subject filmmakers a moment in the global spotlight. But can the show ever truly gain momentum unless it relegates some of these honors to pre-gala ceremonies, like other awards shows do?
• Thanks to Hollywood.com for including Copious Notes in its TwitterNation roundup.

Dev Patel, left, and Anil Kapoor in Slumdog Millionaire. Copyrighted AP/Fox Searchlight photo by Ishika Mohan.

Who wouldn’t like a feel-good story right about now: a tale of redemption, an artist getting her due, last respects for a fallen star. Oscar might give us those warm fuzzies Sunday night when the envelopes start opening. Here are my predictions:

Best actor

Mickey Rourke, The Wrestler

His Golden Globe win was a sign that people really liked this fearless performance and liked Rourke. Sean Penn’s Harvey Milk in Milk and Frank Langella’s President Richard Nixon in Frost/Nixon have their adherents. But Mick has been the comeback story of the year in film, and isn’t it about time for a good comeback story?

Best actress

Kate Winslet, The Reader

Who’s more due: Winslet, nominated five times with no win, or Meryl Streep, ­nominated 10 times without a win since 1983 (for Sophie’s Choice)? Bet on ­Winslet, who could have been nominated for The Reader or Revolutionary Road. She’s truly the best actress of 2008.

Supporting actor

Heath Ledger, The Dark Knight

We would love to tell you that Lexington ­native Michael Shannon will win Sunday night, but would you even want to beat the late Ledger, with all the emotion behind this nomination? Ledger will win a well-earned ­posthumous award for a film that should get more recognition. Shannon will be back.

Supporting actress

Penélope Cruz, Vicky Cristina Barcelona

This is the biggest coin toss of the major categories, and there is some fun in the idea of “two-time Oscar winner Marisa Tomei.” But immensely talented and drop-dead gorgeous have always worked in this category, and it should work for Cruz, who also is due for her brilliant career.

Best director

David Fincher, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button

Slumdog Millionaire’s Danny Boyle might very well saw off the limb I’m out on here, but 13 nominations connotes some respect for Ben Button, and a lot of that achievement is in the cat-herding task of directing this thing. It’s also hard to imagine a flick going 0-13, which some bet Ben will do.

Best picture

Slumdog Millionaire

Right after the nominations came out, there was some drama: Would accusations that Slumdog exploits Indians derail it? Would Harvey Weinstein bully The Reader to a win? But Slumdog has continued to roll - nearing $100 million at the box office - and Weinstein has lost his ability to surprise people.

~ Watch Sunday here and in the Herald-Leader for our profile of Michael Shannon.

~ I’ll be Twittering the Academy Awards Sunday night, using the hashtag #oscars. Come and  get in on the conversation, and stay with LexGo.com for continuing coverage from L.A.

Members of the cast and crew of Slumdog Millionaire arrive at the 66th Annual Golden Globe Awards. From left are, Producer Christian Colson, actor Dev Patel, actor Anil Kapoor, actress Freida Pinto, director Danny Boyle, composer A.R. Rahman and writer Simon Beaufoy. Photo by Matt Sayles | AP.

That clanging you hear from Hollywood could be the bellwether ringing for Slumdog Millionaire.

Things in this year’s awards season were not terribly clear until Sunday night, when Danny Boyle’s story of an unlikely game show winner won four Golden Globes, including best motion picture drama, best director for Boyle and best screenplay for Simon Beaufoy. It seems like everyone who’s seen this movie has tremendous enthusiasm for it, and that is translating to award voters.

It would be an interesting contrast to last year if Slumdog continued its run into the Academy Awards. While the awards, so far, have not seen the return of blockbusters, which we thought we might see, Slumdog is a much more hopeful film than last year’s pitch black winner, No Country for Old Men.

Kate Winslet poses with her two Golden Globe Awards, which she won on Sunday. Photo by Mark J. Terrill | AP.

While last night’s honors seemed to put Slumdog into a solid frontrunner position, they also raised some interesting possibilities for the Academy Awards, which announces its nominations Jan. 22. Like, is Woody Allen’s Vicky Cristina Barcelona, the winner for best motion picture comedy or musical, now a best picture contender? What about Kate Winslet? Does her dual win, as best actress in a drama for Revolutionary Road and supporting actress for The Reader, indicate this is the year the five-time Oscar nominee might win one of the guys? And will she have to contend with Sally Hawkins, who beat out award perennials Meryl, Emma and Frances for best actress in a comedy or musical for her performance in the little seen Happy-Go-Lucky?

Will everything be a huge disappointment if we don’t get to hear Mickey Rourke give another acceptance speech? After he won for The Wrestler, the star, who looked like he thought he was at the Grammys, gave an oddly-touching and  funny address in which he thanked his dogs and had to have had somebody’s nervous finger ready to hit the censor button.

It was actually a night to push FCC boundaries and reminded us why this cocktail party is so much better than having Billy Bush read the winners’ names, which is what happened last year, due to the writers strike. Winning best actress in a TV show musical or comedy, Tina Fey invited her Internet tormentors to do something I don’t think I’m allowed to say on a newspaper-affiliated blog. At the end of the night, Slumdog producer Christian Colson said a word I know I’m not allowed to repeat here after being told to wrap up his best drama acceptance speech.

That’s OK. He’ll probably have more chances to get it right.

Check out my Twitter for my random thoughts while watching last night.